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Quanto rischi? Quando rischi?

I concetti di asimmetria delle preferenze e della soggettività dell’incertezza, ha rivoluzionato il modo in cui comprendiamo il processo decisionale umano, dimostrando che le persone spesso si comportano in modi irrazionali quando affrontano scelte che coinvolgono rischi e incertezze.

L’asimmetria delle preferenze si riferisce al fatto che le persone valutano le perdite e le vincite in modo diverso, mostrando una sensibilità maggiore alle perdite rispetto alle vincite equivalenti. Questo fenomeno è stato evidenziato nell’esperimento classico del “problema delle perdite”, dove le persone tendono a evitare il rischio quando si tratta di vincite e ad assumere rischi maggiori quando si tratta di evitare perdite. Ad esempio, un individuo può essere più avverso al rischio quando si tratta di investire soldi in azioni (dove potrebbe subire una perdita finanziaria), ma potrebbe essere disposto a rischiare di più per evitare una multa.

Questi due concetti sono strettamente legati, poiché la soggettività dell’incertezza può influenzare l’asimmetria delle preferenze. Le persone tendono ad essere più sensibili alle perdite quando percepiscono l’incertezza come alta o quando hanno paura di perdere il controllo della situazione.

Questi risultati hanno profonde implicazioni per molti campi.

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The concepts of preference asymmetry and uncertainty aversion have revolutionized our understanding of the human decision-making process, demonstrating that people often behave irrationally when faced with choices involving risks and uncertainties.

Preference asymmetry refers to the fact that people evaluate losses and gains differently, showing a greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains. This phenomenon was highlighted in the classic “loss aversion” experiment, where people tend to avoid risk when it comes to gains and take greater risks when it comes to avoiding losses. For example, an individual may be more risk-averse when it comes to investing money in stocks (where they could experience a financial loss), but may be willing to take more risks to avoid a fine.

The “loss aversion” experiment is a classic experiment in cognitive psychology that illustrates preference asymmetry in financial decisions. The experiment usually involves a choice between two options, each with the potential for monetary gain or loss. For example, one option might involve a certain probability of winning 100 euros, while the other might involve a certain probability of losing 100 euros. When exposed to this choice, many people show a preference for the option that implies a certain gain, even if of lower value, over an option that entails a risk of loss, even if with the possibility of a greater gain. In other words, people tend to be risk-averse when it comes to gains. However, when the same situation is presented in terms of losses, people’s preferences reverse. For example, if one option involves a certain probability of losing 100 euros and the other option offers a certain probability of losing 100 euros but with a small chance of not losing anything, people tend to be more willing to take the risk rather than suffer a certain loss.

This experiment clearly demonstrates the asymmetry of preferences between gains and losses: people are generally more risk-averse when it comes to gains and more willing to take risks when it comes to avoiding losses. This behavior violates the assumptions of traditional economic rationality, according to which people should evaluate choices based on their expected utility and should be indifferent to variations in problem presentation.

Uncertainty aversion refers to how people assess and perceive the probability of future events. Kahneman and Tversky demonstrated that people do not assess probabilities objectively, but rather subjectively, based on factors such as past experience, emotions, and perception of control. For example, an individual may perceive an event with a low probability of occurring as more likely if they have recently been exposed to news or events that have made them more aware of that risk.

These two concepts are closely related, as uncertainty aversion can influence preference asymmetry. People tend to be more sensitive to losses when they perceive uncertainty as high or when they are afraid of losing control of the situation.

These findings have profound implications for many fields.

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